“The sky is falling!” At least, that’s the same ol’ story you’ll hear if you spend more than a few minutes on cable news, X, or listening to politicians making their last-minute pitch.

But as I look out the window, I see people on the move, 18-wheelers heading down the road, full shopping carts, and packed business conferences. What gives? Is it business as usual, or do the doomsayers know something the rest of us don’t?

While the economy is by no means running red-hot, we are also not at risk of a major economic downturn. Consider the numbers:

  • The Fed recently cut the interest rate down to 4.75%, the first such rate cut since March 2020.
  • While up from its all-time low, unemployment is at 4.2%, far less than the 10% unemployment rate last seen during the 2008 recession.
  • The global B2B market was worth $18.6 trillion in 2023, and is poised to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 18.2% from 2024 to 2030.
  • The Dow Jones just hit an all-time high, as have B2B-adjacent index funds like the SPDR S&P 500 Industrial Sector ETF and the iShares U.S. Technology ETF.

Despite these numbers, in the B2B world, I see executives nervously scanning the headlines and waiting for the sky to fall, or at least for the other shoe to drop as they monitor a decline in revenue or experience longer-than-average sales cycles. As a result, many B2B marketing leaders are tempted to start pulling back on their brand investments now to help shore up resources and keep their powder dry.

While this is understandable (it may be best to avoid wildly unnecessary risk during times of uncertainty), a too-cautious approach to managing marketing budgets now can leave you worse off than if you had taken an aggressive approach. There is a massive opportunity to be strong and stand out in bluer waters when competitors are pulling back, rather than wait for good times to come again and face red waters filled with increased competition for attention.

Poker is a passion of mine, and it provides a terrific lens that B2B marketing leaders can adopt when considering their approach to risk. In Nate Silver’s new book On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, he explores how the decision-making process of professional poker players relates to how we understand risk in everyday life.

Every hand has a probability, or “expected value,” while the way your opponents play can give you an edge, an insight into what they are holding and, therefore, thinking. If you know the value of your cards and have an inkling about what your competition is holding, you can make the right bet at the right time to generate the maximum outcome.

In the book, Silver describes two types of gamblers: the River and the Village. The River embraces abstract thinking and calculated risk, while the Village values consensus and stability. He argues that the River is better positioned to capitalize on opportunities when the odds are in their favor.

B2B marketers today are faced with a similar conundrum: pull back on marketing or power ahead? While reducing brand-building seems like the safe approach (after all, if your competitors are doing it, then it must be a good idea), a B2B marketer with a River mindset will look at the world as it is, see an opportunity to capture market share from its Village-minded competitors, and go all in.

This is especially true when you keep in mind that an investment in your brand now will pay dividends down the road. That’s because many B2B sales cycles can take months or even years to go from a client identifying a problem and researching solutions, to finding your brand, making contact, working through the sales cycle, and finally signing a contract. That customer two years from now, when the economy may feel amazing and the deals are flowing? They’re looking at your brand today. If you pull back now, it’s your long-term growth that’s most at risk, not your current fundamentals.

Now is your time to create and build brand awareness. This doesn’t mean being wasteful with spend; protect and focus your marketing dollars on branding and marketing activities to drive sales today and position your organization to be better prepared tomorrow. Long-term brand-building activities such as brand design, collateral, content, sales enablement, messaging, and refinement to your strategic positioning can all help you create a trove of evergreen, impactful content and campaigns you’ll leverage for years to come.

Bonus round: As your Village-minded competitors cut their spending, it means there is less noise in the market and more opportunity for your brand to shine through. Why wait for them to ramp up their budgets when you can capture leads and market share right now? While they fold, you can still be at the table. At the end of the day, you can’t win if you don’t play. Ante up!

Kimberly Tyner is CEO and CCO at Spire

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